Have you ever wondered why in Vana'diel do you spent hours (if not days) farming coffer keys while other people seem to get it to drop on their first few kills?
Well, I have discovered a couple of theories from all my time adventuring around the great lands of Vana'diel, and most if not all of those theories are extremely accurate (at least to me).
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Chapter One : Items
The item you want will not drop (at least not without hours and hours of camping) when you want it to drop.
The said item, when dropped will usually drop off the next monster that you kill (which would be after hours of farming).
On the other hand, stuff that you were NOT camping for (this includes junk) will always usually drop very fast.
When farming (coffer keys/ quest items), the said item will not drop even after hours of camping, but when you have finally given up and decided to kill the last monster before leaving, the chances for said item to drop is extremely high (either that or the following monster AFTER the one you killed would drop it).
Chapter Two : Monsters (Including NMs)
The chances of finding a random NM up, unclaimed, is extremely high when you are either not prepared (wrong sub-job or lack of gears), or when you are on some low leveled job incapable of killing said NM.
Lottery pop NMs you are camping would either not pop or in the even it does pop, will not drop the item that you are seeking (unless it is a 100% drop).
When camping 21-24 hr repop NMs, when you have the luck (or lack of ) of getting the TOD and there is no one else camping, the chances for a server maintenance the next days is morderately high.
When a 21-24 hr NM(HNM)'s window is going to be open within your time zone after weeks of being stuff in the other end of the time zone, the chances of a server maintenance to reset all TODs is high.
When camping NM and there are other people also camping the same NM, the chance for it to pop BEHIND you (resulting in a lost claim) is greatly increased.
When pulling monsters (in EXP PT) the chances for the monter to link with other monsters increases the more you don't want it to link.
When pulling monsters (in EXP PT) the chances of a monster poping near the camp (which would result in linking/ aggroing) is very high.
When trying to sneak your way pass sight based monsters, the chance for it to turn around and see you as you walk pass increases the lower your level is compared to the monster, and in the event you do not aggro it, the chance increases for each other PT memeber atempting to do the same.
Chapter 3 : Travels
When taking airships/boat the chances of it leaving just as you reach the door is greatly increased when you are in a rush.
When you require a specific teleport, you would be unable to get it even after shouting for a long time (this includes Retraces). The chance increases the greater you are in a rush.
When you are rushing off to somewhere, the chances of finding unclaimed NMs is high. (see Chapter 2)
When adventuring off in the far (and deserted) corners of Vana'diel, the chance of forgetting an Instant Warp scroll (or any form of warp) is very high. This applies to jobs incapbale of teleporting/warping.
You would more likely run into Besiedged while walking towards the Chocobo Stables in Al'Zahbi to grab a chocobo then you would when you actually want Besiedged to skillup.(see Chapter 4)
Chapter 4 : Combat
While fighting in massive battlefields (Campaign/Besiedged), the chances of dying right after you re-raise from some random unseen AOE is very high.
The chance of having you buff removed in one second after spending the last 5mins buffing up is high.
After fighting in a long Besiedged/Campaign, the chance to D/C is proportional to the amount of EXP you would have earned if you didn't D/C.
Just when you think this is going to be a nice long campaign battle, it ends just as you get your allied tag.
The chance of the enemy using a deadly TP move at the moment you have no shadows up (which would result in your death or that the next hit would kill you) is high.
The chance of the enemy using AOE to wipe your shadows just after you have casted it, is also as high.
You would usually get killed not long after your re-raise wears.
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There is actually more, but this post is already long enough, I'll save it for the next time. Hehe.
